Un análisis preliminar de la relación entre factores selectos y la incidencia de coronavirus en el mundo. Actualizado al 18 de junio del 2020

Abstract

The present study carried out a preliminary analysis of a set of variables that are suspected to have an effect on the number of deaths from coronavirus and the daily growth rate of these deaths. The causal variables included are geographical location of the country, population density, median age of the population, number of annual deaths per 1,000 inhabitants, number of beds per 10,000 inhabitants, quality of the health system, average temperature annual in the country, annual mean number of PM2.5 particles, and the number of days elapsed since the country reported the first cases of coronavirus. The results of hypothesis testing to assess whether these factors had effects showed that, in fact, a good number of them affect the mortality caused by the coronavirus and the growth rate of this mortality.

The analysis showed that countries located in hot climates, with younger populations, less densely populated and that have a shorter time since reporting their first coronavirus cases are in, relatively, a very good position regarding the pandemic at this time. This indicates that the pandemic mitigation actions should not be imported vis-a-vis from other countries with different dynamics such as, for example, Central American and West Indian countries. In other words, copying the actions of other countries when they are not adequate can have a rather adverse effect both economically, socially and in health aspects.

The advantage of time due to late entrance of the pandemics should be used to reinforce preventive actions by citizens with discipline and perseverance. Every effort should be made to mitigate its effect on health through the pertinent preventive actions as recommended through the WHO / PAHO campaigns in the case of Nicaragua and Central America.