Evaluation of probabilistic distributions to predict fluvial flooding of the Tumbes river, in the section of the city of Tumbes, Peru

Abstract

The objective of the research was to evaluate the probabilistic distributions to predict fluvial flooding of the Tumbes River in the section of the city of Tumbes. The methodology applied in the collection and analysis of hydrometeorological data was the frequency analysis for return periods of 50, 100 and 200 years, to obtain the hydrograph we worked with HEC-HMS, then we used the HEC-RAS model to represent the flood for a centennial flood. The simulation focused on the outflow of the measuring point at the El Tigre hydrometric station, and was compared with the values measured by the flow meter. An error of less than 1% was observed when adjusting the Curve number parameter. The results of the HEC-RAS model indicate that there is a variation of 4.98% between the minimum and maximum values in terms of flow rates. Meanwhile, with respect to water velocities, a variation of 11.36% was recorded, with values ranging from 2.613 m/s to 2.910 m/s.