Analysis of the projection of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index with precipitation and temperature in Nicaragua, through a progressive standard model, which guarantees decision- making in very critical weather scenarios

Abstract

The importance of the models for the forecast of precipitation and temperature in a region is extremely important, since it allows us to analyze unfavorable scenarios that can harm agriculture, both in the dry season and in the rainy season. The indicators are used for decision-making with the aim of minimizing the negative impacts caused by mankind to nature. For this reason, it is intended to present a progressive standard model (PSM), which helps understand the incidence of the atmospheric index measured from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with the variability of precipitation in Nicaragua. The NAO atmospheric index, precipitation, and temperature, marks a linear and polynomials trend respectively, with a correlation of 0.96, 0.97 and 0.93 for the factors studied, in this regard, the three parameters evaluated can mark a trend in the next 5 years using the Progressive Standard Model (PSM) method. For this reason, the contribution of said research is focused on the prospection of negative scenarios to propose strategies that strengthen risk management, and help decision makers to harmonize climate variability.